by David Holmes
Well, it’s here, the long awaited IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It is led by the Summary for Policy Makers as the document that is most quoted by news outlets and has more influence over public understanding of climate science than any other single text. It represents a distillation of the work of thousands of climate scientists around the world, summarising 9,200 scientific publications on the physical science, impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation and mitigation options, with 7000 of these being published since Assessment Report 4 (AR4).
With 259 authors and over 54000 comments spanning 39 countries, the fact of this report achieving more than 97 per cent consensus is itself remarkable.
That this consensus has held its ground in the midst of the competing pseudo-science and tabloid hostility toward climate change science is even more impressive. The summary points out that the certainty of AR5 has bettered that of AR4 because the climate models have improved, and have reproduced observed surface temperature patterns.
But will AR5 make any difference to public understanding and, more importantly, action on climate change? Well, let’s go first to the certainty. The really big item that quality press outlets will be reporting in the morning is the 95 per cent (that’s 95 per cent) confidence that most global warming is caused by humans. That much certainly is astonishing for a report like this, from a body that is renowned for its restraint.
Whilst the 2013 report is far less uncommittal than the 2007 report, some climate science communicators have already suggested it does not go far enough. For example, Abraham and Nutticelli, point to evidence that natural external factors had no net influence on global temperatures in the last 60 years, and that therefore the summary should spell out that the 95 cper cent confidence relates to humans causing 100 per cent of global warming.
But part of the reason for the restraint here may be the masking effect of human-made aerosols which the full report on the physical science should explain on Monday. That is, humans may be causing 100 per cent of the warming, but human activity also offsets this warming with sulphur aerosols that reduce the rate of warming by up to 30 per cent.
Another resolute but sobering item that the IPCC summary communicates is that “climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped”. In otherwords, what climate scientists call “committed warming” is now being talked about not just as fixed global average temperature that we would be committed to, but a commitment to temperature rise that will continue to increase even if mitigation of C02 dropped to zero. This is because the residence time of current CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is potentially hundreds of years.
Overall, other trends identified in AR4 will continue, sea ice retreat, glacial melt, ocean warming, warming of surface air temperature. And these trends have now been tied to the observation that the last three decades were the warmest in the past 1400 years. These observable trends fly in the face of so many attempts by tabloid news outlets, both print and their echo-media in radio and television bulletins, to spike uncertainty and misinformation ahead of the release of the report. The standout here was the great “global cooling” swindle inaugurated by the Daily Mail, and scandalously parroted by press outlets that have deemed themselves unaccountable to journalistic codes.
Whilst the summary does not communicate the science in terms of regions of the globe, it forecasts that heat waves are projected to occur more frequently and last longer, which is likely to be bad news for Australia, in particular. There seems to be a lot more certainty about more of those “angry summers” than there is of the severity of floods and storms.
As an exercise in public communication, the summary is much more confident, resolute and useful for policy makers, as its “likelihood terminology” has been ramped up by the improvement in the modelling. How the tabloid assisted denier industry is going to respond to it, or whether is will be effective in dismantling the manufactured “debate” remains to be seen. But with this much certainty and this much consensus, the consequences of not taking any action to stop dangerous climate change are far too great to entertain a debate.
This article originally appeared on The Conversation.
Find out more:
- Dr David Holmes
- Communicatiosn and Media Studies
- School of English, Communications and Performance Studies
Professor Bain Attwood gives Returning Harvard Lecture
Monash academic and leading scholar in the field of cross-cultural history Professor Bain Attwood presented the 2016 … Continue reading Professor Bain Attwood gives Returning Harvard Lecture
A matter of inclusion: Dr Matthew Piscioneri receives award for teaching innovation
Would you employ a dog if you thought it was suited to the job? Imagine … Continue reading A matter of inclusion: Dr Matthew Piscioneri receives award for teaching innovation
Music Industry Survey: Investigating the Value of Music Exports
At a time when Australian pop, rock, country and hip hop acts are finding new … Continue reading Music Industry Survey: Investigating the Value of Music Exports
Tin sheds to global empires: looking at Mambo and what’s changed
Interview with Monash academic Associate Professor Tony Moore “A recognition of the distinctness of cultural … Continue reading Tin sheds to global empires: looking at Mambo and what’s changed
Assoc Prof Nathalie Nguyen wins archivist Mander Jones Award
Associate Professor Nathalie Nguyen, Deputy Director of the National Centre for Australian Studies, won recognition … Continue reading Assoc Prof Nathalie Nguyen wins archivist Mander Jones Award
Monash hosts first international conference on Aceh’s performing and visual arts
Last month Monash hosted an interdisciplinary conference “the Monash International Conference and Cultural Event (ICCE) of Aceh 2016” (26-28 September) and a series of Aceh-related events at the Caulfield and Clayton campuses.
Monash researchers contribute to South Australian domestic violence consultation
Members of the Monash Gender and Family Violence: New Frameworks in Prevention Research Focus Program … Continue reading Monash researchers contribute to South Australian domestic violence consultation
Mojo Awards a stunning success at Bobby McGee’s
Monash University’s journalism department celebrated the outstanding work of students at the inaugural Mojo Awards at Bobby McGee’s … Continue reading Mojo Awards a stunning success at Bobby McGee’s
Monash students from SDSN Youth at United Nations General Assembly
SDSN Youth is one of the leading global networks in sustainable development. Launched in … Continue reading Monash students from SDSN Youth at United Nations General Assembly
Grants to help promote contemporary Australian jazz in Japan
The Monash Art Ensemble has been awarded two significant grants by the Australia-Japan Foundation (AJF) … Continue reading Grants to help promote contemporary Australian jazz in Japan
MIC researchers contribute to new Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence
Monash Indigenous Centre Associate Professor Bruno David, Professor Ian McNiven and Professor Lynette Russell are contributing … Continue reading MIC researchers contribute to new Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence
Paul Strangio at the Australian Senate Occasional Lecture Series
Monash Art’s Associate Professor Paul Strangio will be giving a lecture in Canberra this week as … Continue reading Paul Strangio at the Australian Senate Occasional Lecture Series